In analytics, we distinguish between two types of probabilities:
- Market Probability: What we see in the bookmakers odds.
- Real (Model) Probability: An estimate of chances based on statistics, lineups, and team form.
To calculate the real probability, we use mathematical models. A model processes hundreds of factors (xG, possession, attack/defense) to produce a "clean" number, unaffected by emotions or market money flows. Our task is to identify market errors where the real probability is higher than the market probability.